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The Corona Virus CV-19 Survival Thread AKA This is the End My Friend

El Gringo Feb 13, 2020

  1. chutcher

    chutcher JDBA OFFICIAL Member JDBA Official Member

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    First, when does trust in government bureaucracies equate to patriotism in the USA?

    Second, you have missed my point completely. I do not trust what government bureaucracies tell me, and I posted a link
    to the CDC and pointed out an inconsistency where it seems they are not being honest.

    One of the main talking points about how much worse coronavirus is than the flu is the comparison of the mortality rates.

    Let me explain this inconsistency one more time...

    Currently, there are 32,464 laboratory confirmed coronavirus cases with 414 deaths which equals to slightly more than 1% morality rate.
    This has dropped significantly from the initial 3.4%. We know this is how they are calculating the coronavirus mortality rate because they blast it on the news every day.

    The CDC link I posted states the flu mortality rate is 0.1%. It goes on to explain this is calculated by using an estimated 32 million infected with 22,000 deaths.

    Now, if you read carefully the link shows there were 222,552 laboratory confirmed cases, but these are not used in the calculation.

    If they were to calculate the flu mortality rate like they are doing with coronavirus by dividing deaths by laboratory confirmed cases
    you would get a flu mortality rate of 10% - 10 times more deadly than coronavirus - but they are not doing that.

    Nothing you have posted so far explains this discrepancy as to why they are constantly comparing the flu and coronavirus mortality rates, but they are using different methods to calculate each. One divides the deaths by estimated infections while the other divides the deaths by laboratory confirmed cases giving a greatly skewed comparison. They are comparing apples and oranges to paint a narrative.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
    apdallaround likes this.
  2. Balibuyer

    Balibuyer JDBA4L JDBA Official Member

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    Just annihilating some couple year old backstrap & sausage.....corona free like a boss!
    20200322_180205.jpg
     
  3. crogers

    crogers Magnus advocatus diaboli Super Moderator Brigade Member

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    TPAlternative 1.jpg
     
    tubtar, Flip Tripper, Kelper and 3 others like this.
  4. crogers

    crogers Magnus advocatus diaboli Super Moderator Brigade Member

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  5. adnj

    adnj Huge member

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    You are using an invalid equivalence to arrive at your numbers.

    From the earliest studies, mortality rates were based on the statistical approximation of R0 as a consequence of the the known infection vector interfaces and the determined positive vs. negative tests and outcomes. The same methodology is used to provide a high confidence assessment of the spread of infection without the requirement of testing every subject in the population. This method is used for the determination of H1N1 mortality, also.

    You are looking at the casualties of infection while infection has yet to occur and the outcomes of the known cases haven't occurred either. This is not something that can be assessed without a relatively complicated statistical model and the fitting of the model outcomes to the existing dataset and circumstances.

    You will not get a meaningful answer regarding mortality when you are comparing an incomplete dataset and choosing to look at it in a particular way that happens to be incorrect.

    My recommendation is to copy this post, go out and live your life, and look back on it in a year. At that time, you will likely see a relative increase in US fatalities due to viral respiratory illness that's about 10 or 20 times what it was the year before. Or I could just be talking out of my ass. It wouldn't be the first time.

    Unfortunately, with total confirmed cases in the US on track to double every three days, the number may be higher still.

    Capture+_2020-03-23-18-02-14.png
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  6. chutcher

    chutcher JDBA OFFICIAL Member JDBA Official Member

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    What? Nothing here demonstrates my calculations are wrong. I am providing you with simple calculations you can see, verify, and do yourself. You provide regurgitated high level abstracts produced by government bureaucracies.
     
    begreen61 likes this.
  7. chutcher

    chutcher JDBA OFFICIAL Member JDBA Official Member

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    Why don't you go point by point on the numbers I provided at the time of the post. Where is each point incorrect?
    1. there are 32,464 laboratory confirmed coronavirus cases in the US
    2. there are 414 deaths in the US
    3. You divide 414 by 32,464 you get .012 which is about 1%
    4. There are 222,552 laboratory confirmed flu cases from the CDC link I provided
    5. There are 22,000 flu deaths from the CDC link I provided
    6. You divide 22,000 by 222,552 you get .098 which is about 10%
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  8. chutcher

    chutcher JDBA OFFICIAL Member JDBA Official Member

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    With any luck, within a year from now this post will be full of Patriots as pissed as I am right now at this deception that is trying to bring our country to its knees.
     
    tubtar and begreen61 like this.
  9. crogers

    crogers Magnus advocatus diaboli Super Moderator Brigade Member

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    QuarantineDecisions.jpg

    QuarantineDecisions2.jpg
     
  10. apdallaround

    apdallaround K'inich Janaab' Pakal I JDBA Official Member

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    at this point does anyone on the forum know someone directly infected?

    not just ‘some’ numbers

    we have vents lined up but zero need as of now
     
  11. crogers

    crogers Magnus advocatus diaboli Super Moderator Brigade Member

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    Y'all want my toilet paper? Come take it!

    [​IMG]
     
  12. chutcher

    chutcher JDBA OFFICIAL Member JDBA Official Member

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    Maybe? If so, I just didn't know it because their symptoms were so mild.

    However, I personally know several people that were really sick with the flu this year.
     
    apdallaround likes this.
  13. adnj

    adnj Huge member

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    Once again, the mathematics are spot on. The assumptions are not correct.

    There is no current widespread testing for flu.

    March 16 data (4226 cases) showed about 12% (508) of US confirmed Covid-19 cases had been hospitalized. Known outcomes was 8.6% (44) of those hospitalized, deaths were 15 (3%) but were 34% of US cases of known outcome.

    Although we have no reason to believe that these early numbers are absolute, we can expect that they will indicate the difference between mortality rates of hospitalized cases of H1N1 vs Covid-19.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
     
    apdallaround likes this.
  14. chutcher

    chutcher JDBA OFFICIAL Member JDBA Official Member

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    What are my assumptions? I do not assume that the media has continually compared the flu vs coronavirus mortality rates when it is demonstrable they are comparing apples and oranges. I have heard it myself.

    As far as the link you provided... Any report that starts off by saying "Early data from China suggest" needs to be immediately thrown in the trash.
     
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  15. begreen61

    begreen61 Deadicated JDBA Official Member Brigade Member

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    my 2 cents,,, death rate is less than 1 percent they are really doing this to separate us through fear .Then destroy are economy by keeping us at home and then the New world Order will take over useing UN troops ,,Yes I'm saying this hole senearo is part of agenda 21/30 ,China and the 6 family's in power are pulling all the strings .fake news is own by the Chinese and the 6 family's .CNN ,,,MBC,,ect,,ect,, the only country not affected by the virus is Russia ,, so the Chinese talked Sadie Arabia to lower there oil prices to the point Russia is now collapsing money wise .. I have a friend in Russia and everything turned upside down there sense the oil prices dropped ...so in a sense they are in the same boat economy wise . We need to stay Positive and not let them deviled us anymore ,,I firmly believe Trump is fighting the Globalist ,,I have done the research and this is my 2 cents,,,,call me a nut,,,,,,,,

    g
     
  16. chutcher

    chutcher JDBA OFFICIAL Member JDBA Official Member

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    You are spot on
     
    begreen61 likes this.
  17. adnj

    adnj Huge member

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    Yo have compared the expected case fatality rate of Covid-19 with the hospitalization mortality rate H1N1 influenza. You cannot know what the number of Covid-19 infections unless you:

    1. statiscally extrapolate
    2. test the entire population

    My point is that the Covid-19 transmission will likely result in a larger number of deaths and a significant increase in the use of medical resources. The key is how much will be spent if 1/3rd of the population becomes infected; 1/20th of the infected are hospitalized; and 1/7th of the hospitalized die. The current trajectory of Covid-19 cases indicates the number of deaths may approach 30,000 before the middle of April.

    For the sake of argument, let's set mathematics aside and assume that the Chinese lied. But you can also look at US congressional testimony from Anthony Fauci on March 11: "It's about 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu."

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?470224-1/dr-fauci-warns-congress-coronavirus-outbreak-worse
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
  18. chutcher

    chutcher JDBA OFFICIAL Member JDBA Official Member

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    Anthony Fauci... yeah, like i trust that weasel
     
    begreen61 likes this.
  19. adnj

    adnj Huge member

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    Like I said before, you don't have to believe anyone. Go ahead and live your life. Let's see what happens.
     
    apdallaround and chutcher like this.
  20. crogers

    crogers Magnus advocatus diaboli Super Moderator Brigade Member

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    TPAlternative 9.jpg
     
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